Bearish Year-End, Bullish Next Year; Where To Target After The Rally?



Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and now targets the pair at 1.16 by end of Q3 and at 1.14 by year-end.

"Following the strong EURUSD rally during the summer, which was mostly a USD sell-off, we see downside EURUSD risks for the remaining of the year, mostly driven by a USD correction higher. EUR has remained broadly stable with respect to non-USD currencies. The market remains long EUR, with some indicators suggesting historically stretched positioning, particularly for real money," BofA notes. 

"We are concerned the consensus is: too optimistic on the global economy; too optimistic on a vaccine; too pessimistic on the Covid-19 situation in the US compared with that in Europe; and complacent on the US elections.

In the long term: we disagree with the view that the EU Recovery Fund sets a precedent; we are concerned that the consensus is focused too much on the increasing US debt and is complacent about similar or even worse trends in the rest of the world, and in the Eurozone periphery in particular; the consensus expects the Fed to keep policies loose for a long time, but may be missing a possibility that the ECB may need to keep policies loose for even longer," BofA adds.