USD: FOMC Minutes To Reveal If Hike Cycle If Complete Or Still Part Of Baseline Outlook - Barclays


Barclays Research discusses its expectations for tomorrow's FOMC minutes from the January meeting.

"We look to the minutes of the January FOMC meeting for insights as to whether FOMC participants see the rate hike cycle as essentially complete or whether members still expect further rate hikes as part of the baseline outlook.

In other words, many FOMC participants have communicated a desire to remain “patient” or “pause” the rate hike cycle to evaluate the incoming data, while the language in the statement suggests that the tightening cycle is complete and the committee has no upward bias in its forward guidance," Barclays notes.

"The minutes should also provide information about what caused the committee to assess that financial conditions had tightened and shift the balance of risks to the downside. We believe the January senior loan officer survey may have played a role in the former while a variety of factors likely drove the latter. In addition, we expect the minutes to signal that the committee is prepared to release its plan on how it will end runoff of its balance sheet “soon,” which we believe will come at the March meeting," Barclays adds.