ANZ Research adopts a tactically neutral view EUR/USD and mildly bearish on USD/JPY in the near-term.

"We expect EUR/USD to stabilise as: a) we have likely seen the bulk of the adjustment already (markets are now pricing just 10bp of a hike in December 2019, which is fairly dovish); and b) EUR/USD is now trading below fair value for the first time in a year (with 1.5–2% risk premium). For this cross to perform a sustained rebound, though, strength in the data flow is needed," ANZ argues.

"While the yield differential plays in favour of the USD, heightened uncertainty around trade, which is keeping markets nervous, suggests the importance of rates as a driver of the JPY is set to diminish. Importantly, the JPY remains cheap relative to our expectations and, with heightened volatility likely to remain a feature of markets, we think more JPY strength is in store," ANZ adds.

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