USD/CAD: Little Bias In The Pair But Data Surprise Momentum Points To Downside - TD

TD FX Strategy Research discusses USD/CAD outlook noticing that pair is trading around the midpoint of the past month’s trading range, but it maintains about a 1% gap to the 60d range.
"This suggests little bias in the pair, as the market works through the two-way risks in oil prices, relative central bank policy and the impact of high-frequency data surprises.
Our framework for data surprise momentum still favors downside in USDCAD as USD data momentum is tracking close to the levels that mark turning points. The CAD side reflects the opposite angle and could start to recover over the coming weeks," TD argues.
TD maintains a short USD/CAD* position from 1.2770 targeting 1.2380.