EUR/USD Bearish (since 27 Oct 17, 1.1605): Scope for extension to 1.1530. No change in view, see update from yesterday below.
EUR has been consolidating within relatively narrow ranges after the sharp decline late last week. As highlighted in recent updates, despite the oversized drop, there is scope for extension towards the next support at 1.1530. That said, downward momentum has eased somewhat with the consolidation. However, only a break back above 1.1755 (stop-loss level unchanged) would indicate that a short-term low is in place. Until then, a push lower towards 1.1530 is not ruled out even though the odds for such a move have diminished. Positioning wise, those looking to sell may like to wait for a bounce to 1.1675.
AUD/USD: Bearish (since 26 Oct 17, 0.7705): Another down-leg towards 0.7560 is not ruled out but odds are not high. No change in view.
While the outlook for AUD is still bearish, downward momentum continues to deteriorate and the odds for another down-leg towards the revised target at 0.7560 are not high. Last week’s low of 0.7625 is acting as a strong support and this level would not be easy to crack. That said, confirmation of a short-term low is only upon a move back above 0.7715.
NZD/USD: Neutral (since 01 Nov 17, 0.6895): In a 0.6825/0.6980 range.
We just shifted from a bearish to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase even though the immediate bias is for a probe higher towards the top of the expected 0.6825/0.6980 sideway trading range.
USD/JPY: Neutral (since 31 Oct 17, 113.10): Still neutral but in a higher 113.00/114.50 range. No change in view.
We shifted from a bullish to neutral stance yesterday and the subsequent strong rebound from a low of 112.95 came as a surprise. Despite the strong recovery, we continue to hold the same view even though USD is expected trade at a higher 113.00/114.50 range (instead of 112.40/113.85 expected previously). Looking further ahead, USD has to break clearly above 114.50 to indicate the start of a fresh bullish phase.