USD: Could Modest Tax Cuts Alone Change The Trend For USD - Barclays



Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research forecasts some stabilization of the USD over the next 3-6 months, with upcoming announcements of a “new Fed” and US tax policy.
"With markets continuing to price fewer hikes than implied by either the median Fed dot or our own forecasts, the appointment of a more hawkish Fed Chair (and three other governors) could trigger a re-pricing in front-end rates but leave terminal rates in this cycle and back-end risk premia unchanged.
A package of modest tax cuts alone, which appears more likely, should also not lead to a change in trend for the USD but presents upside risks to our forecasts for a range-bound USD into Q1 18. Beyond that, catch-up from the rest of the world versus a more mature US is likely to drive the dollar weaker medium term," Barclays argues. 
"We view risks to our USD forecast as symmetric: tax reforms, geopolitics, and protectionist policies would lead to upside risks (the latter two primarily versus EMs), but likewise we see downside risks to confidence and economic activity from US politics," Barclays adds.

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