EUR/USD: 1.1640 Shift to bearish; despite the large decline, there is scope for extension to 1.1530.
The break of the key support amidst impulsive downward momentum indicates that EUR has moved into a bearish phase. That said, EUR has registered 200 pips decline from yesterday’s peak of 1.1835 and any further weakness would likely be at a slower pace and the next level at 1.1530 is expected to offer solid support (next key level is at 1.1435). On the upside, key resistance is at 1.1835 but a move back above 1.1755 is enough to indicate that a short-term low is in place.
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 11 Oct 17, 1.3205): Short-term weakness to extend lower to 1.3025/30.
GBP reversed most of the gains made on Wednesday and took out the strong 1.3170 support. The scenario has shifted back to the one presented on 25 Oct wherein we expected the short-term weakness to extend lower and test the major 1.3025/30 support. At this stage, the prospect for a clear break below this level is not high but it would continue to improve unless GBP can move and stay above 1.3240. On a shorter-term note, 1.3190 is already a strong resistance.
AUD/USD: Bearish (since 26 Oct 17, 0.7705): Target a move to 0.7630.
We just shifted to a bearish stance yesterday and the immediate target remains unchanged at 0.7630. A break of this level would shift the focus to 0.7560. The entry-level highlighted at 0.7755 was not reached (high of 0.7720) and it appears that we have missed the ideal selling opportunity. Overall, the current bearish phase is deemed as intact until 0.7750 is taken out. On a shorter-term note, 0.7720 is already a strong level.
NZD/USD: Bearish (since 19 Oct 17, 0.7030): Below 0.6820 shift focus to 0.6750.
While we have been bearish NZD, we assign low odds for an extension to 0.6820. However, NZD is currently approaching this level and a break of this year-to-date low would shift the focus to 0.6750. Overall, only a move back above 0.6905 would indicate that the current bearish phase has ended.
USD/JPY: Bullish (since 19 Oct 17, 112.95): 114.50 back in sight.
There is not much to add as USD traded in a relatively quiet manner yesterday. The outlook remains bullish but as highlighted in recent updates, 114.50 is a major level and is expected to offer solid resistance. That said, a clear break of this critical level could lead to a rapid rise to 115.00.