EUR/USD: Neutral (since 14 Sep 17, 1.1890): EUR is expected to drift lower to 1.1665/70.
EUR has been trading within a 1.1730/1.1880 range for about 2 weeks now. Despite the consolidation, the undertone has weakened somewhat and the immediate pressure is on the downside. That said, downward momentum is patchy at best and any weakness is expected to be gradual and is likely limited to a test of the 1.1665/70 low seen earlier this month (minor support is at 1.1730). Overall, this pair is expected to stay under pressure unless it can reclaim the strong 1.1860 resistance (minor resistance is at 1.1820).
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 11 Oct 17, 1.3205): In a 1.3080/1.3280 range.
GBP slipped to a low of 1.3087 last Friday but rebounded strongly and ended the day on a positive note. While the undertone has weakened somewhat, we continue to hold a neutral view of this pair. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase even though the immediate bias is for GBP to edge lower and test the bottom of the expected 1.3080/1.3280 consolidation range. At this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected.
AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Oct 17, 0.7825): AUD to drift lower towards 0.7735.
The sharp drop in AUD and the subsequent weak daily closing last Friday has shifted the immediate pressure towards the downside. However, downward momentum is not strong and AUD is expected to drift lower to test the lows seen earlier this month at 0.7735. Overall, this pair is expected to stay under pressure in the coming days unless it can move and stay above 0.7890. On a shorter-term note, 0.7855 is already a strong level.
NZD/USD: Bearish (since 19 Oct 17, 0.7030): Over-extended but no sign of stabilization.
The sharp decline in NZD that started late last week took out several strong supports. While the down-move appears to be overextended, there is no sign of stabilization just yet. From here, barring a move back above 0.7040, further weakness towards 0.6860 would not be surprising. The next support below 0.6860 is at the year-to-date low near 0.6820.
USD/JPY: Bullish (since 19 Oct 17, 112.95): Focus is at 114.50 now.
The outlook for USD shifted to bullish late last week when it broke above 112.90. The rapid acceleration higher appears incomplete and from here, the focus has shifted to 114.50, the high back in July (next resistance is at 115.00). On the downside, only a move back below 112.90 would indicate that a short-term top is in place.