Barclays Capital Research sees asymmetric risks for GBP in the first half of the week.
Weaker inflation or a marked deterioration in the labour market – we expect weekly earnings to have increased 2.1% 3m/y (Wednesday; consensus: 2.1%; previous: 2.1%), while unemployment should be unchanged at 4.3% (Wednesday; consensus: 4.3%) – could jeopardize part of the BoE’s support for GBP," Barclays notes.
More broadly, Barclays argues that given the widely negative expectations, risks still at the margin look skewed to the upside for GBP in the near term.
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