Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research expects that the Eurogroup meeting on Monday could support the EUR as ministers will exchange views on possible future roles for the European Stability Mechanism.
Beyond that, Barclays expects the EUR/USD to remain range-bound this week, while the EUR is likely to stay under a modest pressure in the near-term.
"The Catalonian independence drive, with German coalition building in the background, adds downside risks to the EUR as investors reconsider European political stability. Beyond politics, relative monetary policy developments also suggest downside risks to the EUR, particularly versus the USD: the ECB meeting minutes reinforced a message of patience, while both wage growth and Fed speakers pointed to upside for US rates.
However, this week’s light-on-data schedule is unlikely to provide new catalysts for the EUR in either direction, with Industrial Production expected to print at 0.6% m/m (Thursday; consensus 0.7% m/m; previous: 0.1% m/m)," Barclays argues.