Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research discusses AUD outlook, noticing the currency was the biggest mover and declined on the back of disappointing inflation data.
"Australia’s underlying inflation is stable at 1.85% and below the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target as well as in the lower half of the RBA’s 1.5-2.5% forecast for inflation in 2H 2017. While these data are unlikely to significantly impact on the RBA’s rhetoric and forecasts when it publishes its SoMP in a couple of weeks’ time, they were a disappoint to the market (and us), as it was looking for an acceleration in underlying inflation to 2% on the back of higher gas prices.
Despite today’s inflation data, we continue to think the RBA is closer to raising rates than the RBNZ, especially with the RBNZ’s inflation-targeting mandate to be loosened in the coming month(s) as the new government revises the RBNZ Act and the government likely appoints a dovish RBNZ Governor to interpret this new mandate. We remain long AUD/NZD* targeting 1.15," CACIB argues.
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