Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research notes that the FOMC provided strong support to its view that the Fed will take advantage of the "good times" to normalize monetary policies.
"The market pricing for the Fed is now proving to be wrong. The market has been pricing either a US recession, which is hard to justify based on the latest data, or a scenario in which the Fed repeats the Greenspan mistake and allows a market rally on the back of low inflation. This was despite the Fed downplaying low inflation and having hiked twice this year, keeping the dot plot the same and expecting three more hikes in 2018, announcing unwinding of its balance sheet, and expressing a number of times its discomfort about loosening financial conditions.
We feel even more confident about our end-year EURUSD projection of 1.15. We expect the Fed to hike again in December and to prepare markets for three more hikes next year. The possible change in the Fed's leadership is an important known unknown, but we are assuming no change in the Fed's policy reaction function.
In line with this view, BofAML maintains a short EUR/USD* position targeting 1.15 with a stop at 1.21.