Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB (Update)


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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 14 Sep 17, 1.1890):  Risk of a deeper pull-back has increased.
We have held the view that the undertone for EUR is on the ‘weak side’ for a while but have been frustrated with the lack of deeper pullback. EUR closed at a 1-month low yesterday and the risk of a deeper pull-back has increased considerably. From here, further weakness towards 1.1770 would not be surprising but this is a rather major support and may not yield so easily (next support is 1.1720). Overall, EUR is expected to stay under pressure in the coming days unless it can reclaim 1.1960. 
GBP/USD: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a 1.3370/1.3600 range.
We have highlighted the “diminished odds” for further GBP strength in recent updates and the breach of the stop-loss for our bullish view at 1.3440 yesterday (low of 1.3432) was not surprising. In other words, the bullish phase that started about 2 weeks ago (08 Sep, spot at 1.3100) has ended. The current movement is viewed as the start of a consolidation phase and GBP is expected to trade sideways from here, likely between 1.3370 and 1.3600.
AUD/USD: Bearish (since 22 Sep 17, 0.7930): Target 0.7870 followed by 0.7810. No change in view, see update from yesterday below.

We just turned bearish last Friday and the rapid and robust rebound from a low of 0.7908 came as a surprise. Downward momentum has clearly been dented but at this stage, we view the short-term strength as a corrective recovery and not a bullish reversal. The target remains at 0.7870 (followed by 0.7810).
NZD/USD: Neutral (since 06 Sep 17, 0.7255): Downside risk has increased.
While the outlook for NZD is still deemed as neutral, the weak daily closing yesterday suggests that the downside risk has increased. However, as highlighted yesterday, while a dip below 0.7250 would not be surprising, a move below the major 0.7200 support seems unlikely for now. That said, the current downward pressure would continue to increase in the coming days unless NZD can reclaim 0.7365 within these few days. 
USD/JPY: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a 110.60/112.70 range.
The bullish phase that started about 2 weeks ago (13 Sep, spot at 110.15) has ended with the breach of 111.60 yesterday (low has been 111.46).  The current movement is viewed as the start of a consolidation phase and USD is expected to trade sideways from here, likely between 110.60 and 112.70. 

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